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James Rogers

Market Wizards Index: +38%
Compound annual over 11 years

Fund or affiliation

  • Quantum Fund (1970 to 1980)

Methodology

  • Top down investor who bets on whole countries or whole industries.

Research Techniques Employed

  • Money supply, government deficits, inflation figures, the financial markets, and government policy. Roger looks at all those things for the US and key foreign countries as well. It is one big 3-D puzzle. The picture always change, everyday some pieces get taken away and others get thrown in.
  • Occasionally, the CRB charts will provide a catalyst. Sometimes it will show a spike up or down, you see hysteria. He usually like to see if he should not be going the other way. (so, it doesn’t mean he will do anything)
  • Look for hysteria to see If you shouldn’t go the opposite way until you have fully examined the situation.

Trading Techniques Employed

  • At Quantum, when they ran out of money, they will look at the portfolio and push out whatever appeared to be least attractive item at that point. Like amoebas.
  • He foresees demand from abroad and bought early before others know the mechanics of investing in those countries.
  • One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do. Wait for something to come along, then take profit, put the money back into the money market fund and wait for the next thing.

  Philosophy and beliefs

  • You have to be right as well as different: Contrarian. The market is nearly always wrong.
  • I don't see how you can invest in American steel without understanding what is going on in Malaysian palm oil. It is a ever changing 3-D puzzle.
  • Don’t lose money. If you don’t know the facts, don’t play. "I just wait until there is money around the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime."

History and other facts

  • Jim Rogers and John Templeton both went to Yale and Oxford. Both later introduced by the Master of Balliol.
  • Rogers worked for Arnold S. Bleichroeder in 1970, where he met Soros. They left in 1973 because new brokerage firm regulation prevents one from getting a percentage of profits.
  • Quantum Fund was started with one senior partner, one junior partner, and a secretary.
  • October 19 is Roger’s birthday, and in 1987 he got his best brithday present ever.
  • There have been times in history when gold has lost purchasing power- sometimes for decades.

Examples

  • Short the market going into 19 October, 1987.
  • 1974 becomes largest holder of Lockheed.
  • Heavily leveraged bond position in 1982 August.

Performance Record

  • 38% over 11 years: "from 31.12.1969 to 31.12.1980, the Soros Fund chalked up a gain of 3,365% while the S&P advanced about 47%".


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